NOAA El Niño Advisory in effect Strength: very strong (>90% odds) Expected to last to Feb–Apr 2027
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El Niño Watch 2026–27

Language

Where things stand

Nine months ahead

What happens when

Past events

What El Niño did here before

EventSignalWhat followed
Mechanism

How a warm Pacific reaches your kitchen

Follow the arrows. Each step is a place where a household can act, and the later you act the more it costs.

Price exposure

What gets expensive, and why

Ranked by exposure this season. "Stock" means a normal 2–4 month provisioning bought over several weeks, not panic buying.

ItemExposureWhyPrecedentWhat to do

Personal tracker

My local indicators

Enter the numbers for your own district and the page tells you which trigger has tripped. Values stay in this browser only. Thresholds come from what preceded past crises.

Checklists

Preparedness, by area

Tick things off as you do them; progress is saved in this browser, separately for each region. Do the water and food items first, while prices and supply are still normal.

Overall progress
Rural households

If you farm or keep animals

What past responses got wrong

Lessons for a shared playbook

The first items are this region's own; the rest repeated across every strong El Niño since 1997 and are the starting points for a global guideline.

    Sources and caveats

    Where the numbers come from